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Data Story

How Wildfires are Changing

A story produced by Vibrant Planet Data Commons, a nonprofit engine that accelerates the commissioning of cutting-edge environmental science and data analytics at Vibrant Planet.

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Understanding how wildfire patterns change over time is crucial for effective wildfire management. Percent Fire Return Interval Departure (pFRID) is a valuable tool that helps land managers identify shifts in these patterns. This information supports the development of more informed planning and response strategies.

What is pFRID?

Traditional pFRID measures how much current wildfire frequencies differ from historical norms in a given area. It compares the average time between fires now to the average time between fires before pre-European settlement. A positive pFRID represents a fire deficit— fires are burning less frequently than in the past, which can be associated with uncharacteristically extreme fire behavior and ecosystem loss when a fire does occur. A negative pFRID indicates a fire surplus, which results from increased ignition pressure from humans and may hinder an ecosystem’s ability to naturally regenerate.

Vibrant Planet's pFRID dataset takes this analysis a step further. It recognizes that wildfire patterns are naturally variable, especially in areas with historically long intervals between fires.  Their approach accounts for this variability, providing a more accurate and nuanced picture of how fire patterns are truly changing. This helps land managers distinguish between natural variations and genuine shifts in wildfire behavior, equipping them to make more informed management decisions.

Read the full story at vpdatacommons.org

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